The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases October 2026 personal income, spending and PCE inflation data on November 25 at 8:30 a.m. ET. The report should include an October year-over-year inflation rate, which the Consumer Price Index could not publish, and it is the last inflation reading before the Fed’s December 9 decision.
Key Takeaways
- The PCE price index rose 3.6% year over year in September, and core PCE, which excludes food and energy, rose 3.1%.
- BLS reported October 2026 CPI up 0.4% and core CPI up 0.3% from September but did not publish 12-month rates because October 2025 prices were never collected.
- BEA filled its October 2025 price gap by imputing values from September and November CPI data, which provides a base for an October 2026 annual PCE rate.
- Real consumer spending rose less than 0.1% in September, and the personal saving rate was 3.8%.
- BEA’s second estimate of third-quarter GDP is scheduled for the same morning, following an advance estimate of 3.4% annualized growth.
BEA Releases October Spending and Inflation Data the Day Before Thanksgiving
The Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes Personal Income and Outlays for October 2026 on Wednesday, November 25, at 8:30 a.m. ET. The release covers personal income, consumer spending, the saving rate and the personal consumption expenditures price index, the inflation measure the Federal Reserve uses for its 2% target.
BEA has also scheduled its second estimate of third-quarter 2026 GDP and corporate profits for the same time. Together, the two releases give a combined view of output, spending and prices heading into the holiday season.
October’s CPI Left Out the Annual Inflation Rate
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released October 2026 CPI on November 10. The headline index rose 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis, following a 0.6% gain in September, and core CPI rose 0.3%. BLS did not publish 12-month changes for overall or core CPI because the 2025 federal government shutdown prevented it from collecting October 2025 prices, leaving no year-earlier base for comparison.
That leaves the October annual inflation rate unpublished in the CPI. The PCE report on November 25 is the first official source that can provide one.
BEA Filled the October 2025 Gap With Imputed Prices
BEA faced the same missing data last year but took a different approach. In its combined October and November 2025 report, released January 22, 2026, BEA replaced the missing October CPI components with values derived from the geometric mean of the September and November CPIs. On that basis, BEA reported PCE prices up 2.7% year over year in October 2025, with core PCE also up 2.7%.
That imputed October 2025 index is the base for this year’s comparison. An October 2026 annual PCE rate will therefore be measured against an estimated, rather than collected, year-earlier price level. Readers should treat the October annual figure with that caveat in mind, especially when comparing it with surrounding months.
September Set a 3.6% Headline and 3.1% Core Baseline
In its September report, released October 29, BEA said the PCE price index rose 0.5% from August and 3.6% from a year earlier. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 0.3% for the month and 3.1% for the year. The annual rates were up from 3.4% headline and 3.0% core in August.
With October CPI showing a smaller monthly increase than September at the headline level and a steady 0.3% at the core level, the PCE figures will show whether the broader measure followed the same path.
Real Spending Stalled While the Saving Rate Held at 3.8%
September’s report showed a gap between nominal and real spending. Personal income rose 0.2%, but real consumer spending, adjusted for inflation, rose less than 0.1%. Higher prices accounted for most of the increase in dollar spending. The personal saving rate was 3.8%.
That leaves little room for households to absorb further price increases without cutting back. October’s PCE spending data will add to what October retail sales, due November 17, show about the consumer, along with credit card balances and delinquency trends in the New York Fed’s household debt report. For retailers and service businesses, real spending is the measure that shows whether customers are buying more or simply paying more.
The Report Is the Fed’s Last Inflation Reading Before December 9
The Federal Reserve meets December 8 to 9, with its decision due December 9. November CPI is not released until December 10, so October PCE is the most recent inflation data policymakers will have. It arrives as borrowing costs remain elevated, with mortgage rates climbing to 7.49% this fall.
Third-Quarter GDP Gets Its Second Estimate the Same Morning
BEA’s advance estimate put third-quarter real GDP growth at a 3.4% annual rate, up from 2.2% in the second quarter. The second estimate on November 25 incorporates more complete source data and may revise that figure. Alongside the PCE report, it will show whether third-quarter strength carried into the start of the fourth quarter.
Four Numbers to Watch on November 25
The first is the October year-over-year PCE rate, read with the imputed-base caveat. The second is the monthly core PCE change, which is less affected by the base issue and compares directly with October’s 0.3% core CPI. The third is real consumer spending, after September’s near-flat reading. The fourth is the saving rate, which shows whether households are drawing down savings to keep spending.
FAQs
When is the October 2026 PCE report released?
The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases Personal Income and Outlays for October 2026 on Wednesday, November 25, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Why didn’t October CPI include an annual inflation rate?
BLS could not collect October 2025 prices during the federal government shutdown, so it had no year-earlier base and did not publish 12-month CPI changes for October 2026.
Will October PCE include a year-over-year inflation rate?
BEA imputed October 2025 prices using September and November CPI data, which provides a base for an October 2026 annual comparison. That base is an estimate rather than collected data.
What was September 2026 PCE inflation?
The PCE price index rose 3.6% year over year in September 2026, and core PCE rose 3.1%, according to BEA.
