Uncertainty is one of the strongest forces in any major financial decision, and few decisions are larger than buying or selling a home. Yet in Washington’s housing market, the uncertainty that surrounds an election appears to change what buyers actually do far less than many people assume.
Eleven years of contract data from Washington, D.C. show that election seasons are only modestly quieter than other years, and in presidential years the difference almost disappears.
The analysis comes from Daryl Judy, an Associate Broker with Washington Fine Properties, who hears the same refrain every election season: buyers and sellers wondering whether they should wait until after the vote. He set out to test that instinct against the numbers.
Why Do Buyers Hesitate During Uncertain Times?
Buyers hesitate because uncertainty makes it hard to picture what comes next, and a home is too consequential a purchase to make without confidence. Judy sees that uncertainty comes from many directions, including an election, a job, the stock market, or personal finances, and he regards it as one of the most powerful influences on how people make decisions. In Washington, where federal policy and employment are closely woven into everyday life, election-season questions about interest rates, the economy and job security can feel especially pressing.
What 11 Years Of D.C. Contract Data Show
Judy examined the number of Washington, D.C. houses going under contract during the same window each year, from October 15 to November 15, between 2015 and 2025. The analysis covers fee-simple houses only, excluding condominiums, cooperatives, and homes in suburban Maryland and Northern Virginia.
Across the five presidential and midterm election years in that period, an average of 389.2 houses went under contract during the window, compared with 414.8 in the six years without a federal election. That is about 6 percent fewer contracts. The presidential years alone tell a different story: they averaged 410.3 contracts, just 1.1 percent below non-election years. The two midterm years averaged less, but their individual totals of 425 and 290 were so far apart that two data points cannot establish a pattern.
Sentiment And Signed Contracts
The gap between how buyers feel and what they do is the heart of Judy’s finding. A buyer who feels uneasy about the months ahead can still find the right home and make an offer, and a seller who is concerned about timing can still receive a strong one. “A feeling of uncertainty isn’t the same as a completed or canceled transaction,” Judy says, which is why he tracks both buyer sentiment and measurable activity. Showings and inquiries signal interest, contracts show buyers making commitments, and closings reflect decisions made weeks earlier, so each tells a different part of the story.
Do Home Prices Fall During Election Years?
Fewer contracts do not necessarily mean lower prices. Contract volume measures how many buyers commit in a given period, while prices reflect the balance of supply and demand for particular homes, along with location, condition, financing costs, and pricing strategy. Judy’s data tracks contract counts rather than sale prices, so it does not support the idea that elections lower home values in Washington.
How Meaningful Is A 6 Percent Difference?
Judy treats the 6 percent figure as a descriptive finding rather than proof that elections cause buyers to pull back. The sample includes only five election years, annual totals vary considerably, and the period spans the pandemic and a sharp shift in interest rates, all of which shaped individual years on their own. Going into the research, he expected a much larger difference, and the numbers challenged that expectation.
Making Decisions In An Uncertain Market
For buyers weighing whether to wait, Judy’s advice is to focus on whether the home, the price, the financing, and their own circumstances make sense now, rather than on the political calendar. Waiting can be the right choice when employment or finances are genuinely uncertain, but postponing solely because an election is near does not guarantee a better price or a lower rate. “In real estate,” he says, “confidence should come from information, not assumptions.”
About Daryl Judy: Daryl Judy is an Associate Broker with Washington Fine Properties, specializing in luxury residential real estate across Washington, DC, McLean, Arlington, Alexandria, Chevy Chase, and Bethesda. He is consistently ranked among the top individual agents in the DC market by volume.
Disclaimer: This article is based on information provided by the expert source cited above. It is intended for general informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or real estate advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult qualified professionals before making any real estate or financial decisions.
