U.S. holiday shoppers plan to spend an average of $1,654 this season, up 4% from $1,595 in 2025, according to Deloitte’s 2026 Holiday Retail Survey. Gen Z and millennials are expected to account for 50% of holiday spending for the first time, and 28% of shoppers’ budgets are likely to be exhausted by the end of October.
Key Takeaways
- Planned spending on retail goods is up 10% to $988 per household, while planned spending on holiday activities is down 4% to $666.
- Four in 10 shoppers plan to shop October sales events, up 18 percentage points from 2023 and close to the 44% planning to shop Cyber Monday.
- Households earning $200,000 or more plan to spend $3,607 on average, more than five times the $693 planned by households earning under $50,000.
- Shoppers plan to put 55% of their retail holiday budgets toward online purchases.
- Shoppers using search, social media, and generative AI plan to spend $2,893 on average, compared with $1,175 for those using none of the three.
Holiday Shopping Trends Point To An October Season
The clearest signal in Deloitte’s 2026 data is timing. Twenty-eight percent of shoppers’ holiday budgets are likely to be exhausted by the end of October, the highest share in six years of the survey. One in four respondents had already bought holiday items during June promotions, and 22% plan to start shopping earlier than they did last year.
October sales events are driving much of that shift. Four in 10 shoppers plan to shop them, up 18 percentage points from 2023. Adobe’s separate forecast points the same way, projecting $95.8 billion in U.S. online spending this October, up 8% from last year.
The traditional peak still holds, however. Planned shopping activity reaches 77% of shoppers in late November and 78% in early December. For retailers and small businesses, the practical effect is a longer season with two demand windows rather than a single rush, and a larger share of each customer’s budget already spent before Black Friday arrives.
Gen Z And Millennials Lead Spending Growth
For the first time in the survey’s history, Gen Z (ages 18 to 29) and millennials (ages 30 to 45) are expected to account for half of holiday spending. Both groups plan double-digit spending increases after pulling back last year, and both report improved household finances compared with 2025.
Their preferences differ sharply from older shoppers. Thirty-seven percent of Gen Z and 33% of millennials want same-day delivery, compared with 13% of baby boomers. A third of Gen Z plans to buy personalized or monogrammed gifts, against 5% of boomers. Natalie Martini, Deloitte’s U.S. retail and consumer products sector leader, said wish lists, faster delivery, and personalized gifts are among the preferences retailers can use to reach these shoppers.
Goods Spending Rises While Experience Spending Splits
The 4% headline gain hides a split inside household budgets. Planned spending on retail goods is up 10% to $988, while planned spending on holiday activities such as travel and entertaining is down 4% to $666.
Experience gifts are moving the other way. Half of shoppers plan to gift an experience, up from 47% in 2025 and 39% in 2024, most commonly a restaurant meal or gift card (37%) or event tickets (19%). Even so, 79% of those shoppers also want to pair the experience with a physical item, which keeps the experience trend connected to product sales rather than replacing them.
Value Seekers Spend More, Not Less
Budget pressure has not translated into lower spending among the most cost-conscious shoppers. Thirty-eight percent of respondents qualify as “holiday value seekers,” using five or more money-saving behaviors such as shopping promotions, redeeming rewards, and choosing private-label alternatives. Yet these shoppers expect to spend 12% more than everyone else, and they are more likely to start early and keep shopping all season.
The income gap remains wide. Households earning $200,000 or more plan to spend $3,607 on average, more than five times the $693 planned by households earning under $50,000.
Inflation And Competing Forecasts Temper The Outlook
Deloitte’s figures sit within a broader set of holiday forecasts that do not all agree. The National Retail Federation projects holiday sales will grow 4.2% to $1.013 trillion, and forecasters expect higher prices to account for about half of the anticipated growth. Circana’s consumer study points lower, expecting average holiday purchases of $779, down from $796 last year.
Taken together, the data suggests holiday spending is rising in dollars while shoppers become more selective about timing, channels, and value. For businesses planning inventory and promotions, the key variables this year are how much of the budget is spent before November and which generations are driving the gains.
Deloitte’s survey was conducted online from August 26 to September 10, 2026, among a nationally representative sample of 4,000 U.S. consumers, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
FAQs
How Much Do Americans Spend On Christmas?
Deloitte’s 2026 Holiday Retail Survey found that shoppers plan to spend an average of $1,654 this holiday season, up 4% from $1,595 in 2025. That total includes $988 on retail goods and $666 on holiday activities.
When Are People Starting Holiday Shopping?
Earlier than in past years. Twenty-two percent of shoppers plan to start earlier than last year, one in four bought holiday items during June promotions, and 28% of holiday budgets are likely to be exhausted by the end of October.
What Are Experience Gifts?
Experience gifts are gifts of an activity rather than an object, such as a restaurant meal or event tickets. Half of holiday shoppers plan to give one this year, though 79% of them also plan to pair it with a physical item.
How Are Shoppers Stretching Their Holiday Budgets?
Many shoppers are using promotions, rewards, and private-label alternatives, and 38% use five or more money-saving behaviors. More shoppers are also starting earlier, partly to spread out costs across a longer season.
